* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 44 46 54 57 60 62 60 58 53 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 44 46 54 57 60 62 60 58 53 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 27 26 26 28 32 35 37 38 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 16 19 18 26 22 8 4 5 8 6 7 14 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 11 8 10 14 7 2 -1 0 2 5 7 3 SHEAR DIR 92 90 82 62 58 38 54 62 53 134 107 85 84 161 209 220 224 SST (C) 29.9 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 155 151 149 149 149 152 154 156 160 162 160 154 150 148 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 5 4 3 4 2 4 4 7 5 7 5 6 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 83 86 87 85 84 83 78 72 69 68 67 67 67 70 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 14 16 15 17 16 15 15 12 9 6 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 42 50 64 65 60 69 68 70 68 60 65 73 79 64 54 31 12 200 MB DIV 109 128 148 135 133 143 144 66 57 66 75 67 88 77 51 16 -17 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 -1 -2 -9 -11 -7 -2 0 2 3 3 6 7 4 9 LAND (KM) 251 324 383 439 464 489 446 345 233 137 93 112 137 92 1 -63 -72 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.6 10.2 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.7 14.3 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.1 90.0 90.6 91.0 91.4 91.8 91.9 91.8 91.7 92.0 92.6 93.5 94.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 5 3 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 17 12 11 12 13 13 15 16 19 22 21 18 16 15 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 395 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 18. 28. 35. 40. 45. 48. 51. 53. 52. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -16. -19. -18. -17. -15. -13. -10. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 9. 13. 12. 10. 9. 5. 2. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 24. 26. 34. 37. 40. 42. 40. 38. 33. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 89.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 21.7% 5.8% 3.4% 1.3% 6.4% 12.9% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 8.1% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 2.3% 4.3% 5.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##