* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 78 72 65 53 44 34 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 78 72 65 53 44 34 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 77 69 62 51 45 42 42 42 40 36 31 28 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 37 39 35 32 26 20 16 19 22 28 27 29 29 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 14 8 3 0 -3 0 4 -3 0 -4 4 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 209 214 206 204 223 249 272 318 315 336 306 298 295 284 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 124 119 117 114 109 108 104 101 103 103 101 102 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 48 47 46 47 53 63 56 45 41 47 44 45 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 37 35 32 28 26 23 23 22 20 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 142 131 123 116 105 59 45 26 14 -21 -36 -68 -85 -90 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 110 86 57 50 -20 26 20 24 26 -12 -29 -9 -5 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 36 48 28 16 6 8 0 7 0 1 1 3 3 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1130 1232 1337 1371 1404 1424 1351 1336 1264 1250 1264 1259 1216 1216 1270 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.6 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.2 31.6 31.6 32.0 32.1 32.1 32.2 32.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.3 58.4 58.5 59.0 59.5 60.8 61.5 61.8 62.5 62.6 62.3 62.2 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 8 7 6 5 2 2 3 0 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 8 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 13 CX,CY: 8/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -22. -30. -38. -44. -49. -53. -55. -55. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -17. -14. -10. -5. -2. -1. 2. 3. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -21. -24. -29. -37. -43. -47. -52. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -20. -32. -41. -51. -55. -60. -67. -76. -83. -88. -91. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 27.5 58.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 441.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/25/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 6( 15) 2( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 78 72 65 53 44 34 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 80 74 67 55 46 36 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 68 56 47 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 68 56 47 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 54 45 35 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT