* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 48 50 57 55 60 56 56 51 48 46 48 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 48 50 57 55 60 56 56 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 26 28 28 28 28 29 32 35 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 20 22 28 27 15 9 8 10 5 3 13 12 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 1 2 8 9 11 10 7 0 0 -2 -1 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 88 86 68 61 67 68 62 79 71 83 46 8 269 223 228 213 219 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 153 154 155 156 158 158 159 158 157 153 148 140 140 143 144 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 83 85 85 85 84 84 80 77 72 71 65 62 58 60 66 74 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 13 16 20 18 20 16 17 13 13 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 67 64 73 67 70 72 64 60 61 73 82 79 70 53 28 30 200 MB DIV 119 132 115 99 115 145 109 68 46 27 33 44 33 28 24 4 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 -7 -13 -12 -2 0 2 0 0 0 2 6 12 10 LAND (KM) 228 275 320 349 381 410 375 311 214 168 141 104 35 -49 -118 -136 -144 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 15.3 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.8 91.5 92.0 92.4 92.9 93.0 93.1 93.1 93.5 94.0 94.6 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 14 14 16 18 22 24 23 20 18 19 18 14 9 5 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 33. 38. 42. 46. 48. 50. 49. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -16. -19. -19. -19. -17. -15. -12. -8. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 13. 16. 11. 13. 7. 6. 1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 28. 30. 37. 35. 40. 36. 36. 31. 28. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 90.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 8.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 2.3% 6.9% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 2.3% 4.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##