* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 67 60 55 49 40 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 67 60 55 49 40 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 74 67 60 54 47 44 41 38 34 30 26 24 23 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 41 38 33 32 23 27 24 23 30 30 30 29 22 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 7 4 0 -3 -1 -2 2 4 -3 1 0 -5 -1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 212 202 204 215 254 262 285 300 313 302 294 295 303 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 125 121 117 114 110 108 106 104 104 103 103 103 105 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 50 47 47 53 60 61 58 53 47 51 56 65 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 35 32 30 28 26 25 21 19 15 12 11 11 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 113 112 100 75 48 33 30 -5 -76 -136 -160 -139 -68 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 78 50 47 36 8 33 32 14 -13 -13 -17 19 57 74 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 45 21 9 4 4 8 2 3 -2 0 8 9 -2 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1316 1374 1434 1454 1460 1383 1335 1297 1259 1241 1239 1226 1222 1238 1267 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.8 30.5 30.9 31.3 31.8 32.1 32.4 32.7 32.9 33.0 33.2 33.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.1 58.4 59.0 59.5 60.3 60.9 61.1 61.3 61.2 60.9 60.6 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 10 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -21. -28. -35. -42. -46. -50. -52. -52. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -15. -17. -16. -14. -11. -7. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -24. -30. -37. -43. -44. -44. -44. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -25. -31. -40. -47. -56. -64. -73. -80. -83. -86. -85. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 29.1 57.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 67 60 55 49 40 33 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 72 65 60 54 45 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 69 64 58 49 42 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 59 50 43 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT