* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 60 53 49 43 34 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 68 60 53 49 43 34 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 68 61 55 50 45 42 39 37 35 31 27 24 23 25 28 29 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 39 38 36 29 21 20 19 26 26 35 36 26 26 32 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 -2 -4 -3 0 5 3 -1 1 2 2 1 -8 -4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 213 204 202 215 228 253 275 278 305 317 302 313 304 295 299 311 296 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 114 111 110 107 103 106 106 106 106 105 106 109 113 114 115 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 42 45 50 61 57 50 43 48 49 51 55 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 35 32 29 28 25 23 20 20 16 12 8 6 6 12 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 112 105 91 73 53 36 16 13 -26 -61 -85 -113 -118 -109 -54 5 19 200 MB DIV 96 62 44 23 7 13 24 17 23 -1 -39 -39 -19 42 89 82 61 700-850 TADV 42 27 11 2 1 5 3 1 0 2 6 14 13 5 2 -5 20 LAND (KM) 1424 1448 1457 1424 1391 1303 1250 1281 1282 1287 1301 1311 1328 1389 1465 1521 1522 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.8 31.3 31.5 31.7 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.7 32.8 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.1 58.9 59.6 60.0 60.4 61.7 62.4 61.4 61.2 60.7 59.9 59.3 59.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 4 5 4 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 14 CX,CY: 1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -26. -32. -37. -41. -44. -46. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -12. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -25. -28. -37. -44. -51. -55. -55. -48. -42. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -26. -32. -41. -52. -57. -66. -75. -83. -89. -90. -82. -75. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.3 58.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 60 53 49 43 34 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 66 59 55 49 40 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 64 60 54 45 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 55 46 35 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT