* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 35 38 42 48 53 55 51 47 47 46 46 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 35 38 42 48 53 55 45 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 24 24 25 28 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 19 16 13 22 15 7 1 6 14 16 16 17 19 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 3 8 9 13 7 6 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 82 80 76 65 52 43 53 65 165 154 153 151 133 138 150 143 145 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.5 30.4 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 154 151 150 149 153 157 157 158 162 169 168 163 161 163 168 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 5 3 5 4 7 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 84 84 82 82 81 78 76 68 70 69 71 73 78 77 80 77 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 15 17 16 14 14 14 14 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 78 81 92 95 89 69 75 74 80 80 86 113 118 105 98 200 MB DIV 110 95 92 126 132 134 100 34 49 52 33 35 17 29 43 33 63 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -1 -4 -10 -4 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 289 313 336 359 376 341 260 176 130 99 67 -3 -72 -155 -153 -164 -46 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.4 89.8 90.1 90.3 90.6 90.4 90.1 90.0 90.0 89.5 88.4 87.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 2 4 3 1 2 4 7 7 3 0 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 25 18 15 13 13 17 22 22 22 26 36 22 44 47 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 41. 45. 49. 52. 52. 52. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 22. 28. 33. 35. 31. 27. 27. 26. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 89.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##