* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 61 55 52 45 36 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 68 61 55 52 45 36 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 63 58 54 48 44 41 38 35 31 28 25 23 21 22 23 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 36 35 27 19 24 23 31 37 37 42 31 34 26 25 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -3 -2 0 -1 5 3 -6 1 -2 -3 -7 3 0 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 200 206 214 225 243 252 273 277 299 288 294 302 303 294 316 326 349 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 109 109 109 103 106 105 103 103 104 106 109 112 116 120 120 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 43 45 52 57 52 38 30 30 30 35 47 52 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 32 30 28 28 24 22 19 16 14 11 8 6 5 2 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 106 102 77 49 38 18 14 -16 -52 -77 -103 -122 -112 -88 -73 -43 -54 200 MB DIV 46 41 30 -12 -24 6 9 13 0 -9 -20 4 28 50 33 34 15 700-850 TADV 19 29 14 13 16 5 4 0 -8 -5 -2 4 4 10 18 6 6 LAND (KM) 1424 1424 1429 1422 1379 1303 1318 1356 1377 1387 1407 1429 1474 1523 1566 1570 1602 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.3 31.8 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.9 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.4 60.0 60.8 61.5 62.1 61.4 60.5 59.8 59.5 59.2 58.6 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 5 1 3 4 2 1 2 3 4 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -14. -20. -27. -33. -38. -41. -44. -45. -44. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -12. -17. -24. -30. -36. -44. -49. -52. -53. -58. -54. -51. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -20. -23. -30. -39. -50. -59. -66. -74. -79. -83. -86. -89. -82. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.5 58.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 61 55 52 45 36 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 67 61 58 51 42 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 65 62 55 46 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 55 46 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT