* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 56 57 56 50 51 49 49 50 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 56 57 42 33 29 27 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 25 28 32 29 27 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 11 18 17 9 7 6 14 13 11 13 17 21 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 8 8 11 11 1 0 -3 4 2 3 4 1 0 7 SHEAR DIR 81 75 67 48 59 46 48 82 148 148 132 124 121 133 141 155 175 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 141 141 141 144 152 155 156 160 164 166 162 162 165 168 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 4 3 3 4 4 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 82 82 79 73 70 69 69 69 73 75 79 79 84 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 16 15 14 14 15 14 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 70 80 87 93 90 79 64 70 79 73 72 85 118 105 108 82 200 MB DIV 92 101 132 135 143 138 75 30 63 72 37 4 0 22 30 65 52 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -4 -7 -10 -1 0 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 340 365 398 413 405 351 243 155 100 74 15 -48 -91 -144 -178 -138 14 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.5 11.4 12.2 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.0 90.3 90.5 90.6 90.6 90.2 90.1 90.3 90.4 89.7 88.5 87.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 1 2 4 5 4 3 2 5 7 6 4 2 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 11 10 10 9 14 18 19 20 24 36 5 48 28 8 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 8. 17. 25. 31. 36. 41. 44. 48. 50. 50. 50. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 25. 32. 36. 37. 36. 30. 31. 29. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.3 89.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 1.4% 4.4% 14.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##