* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 63 59 55 46 36 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 63 59 55 46 36 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 61 57 51 46 42 37 33 29 25 22 20 20 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 34 27 20 21 29 30 40 46 43 43 43 29 25 20 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -1 0 2 6 4 -8 3 -4 -2 5 0 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 206 216 230 251 258 265 275 290 310 321 328 357 13 18 4 353 346 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.5 25.7 26.4 27.2 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 108 107 104 102 105 107 112 112 117 125 130 128 126 118 107 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 3 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 42 45 56 56 53 50 45 38 35 32 31 29 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 28 28 26 21 19 17 16 12 9 7 5 4 2 4 7 850 MB ENV VOR 95 66 38 27 16 -2 -10 -17 -15 -24 -46 -61 -72 -74 -128 -85 -52 200 MB DIV 35 35 -10 -18 21 19 22 6 -3 -90 -61 -84 -81 -27 7 -4 11 700-850 TADV 28 11 9 9 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 -2 -6 0 6 15 7 LAND (KM) 1438 1423 1352 1284 1217 1146 1135 1256 1406 1640 1832 1982 1905 1782 1784 1635 1441 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.4 31.8 32.2 32.7 33.7 34.7 35.0 34.1 32.4 30.9 29.6 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.4 61.1 61.7 62.1 61.6 58.9 54.9 50.9 48.1 46.8 46.4 47.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 9 15 17 16 12 8 6 7 8 9 14 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 25 16 9 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -33. -37. -39. -41. -41. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -34. -41. -45. -48. -50. -53. -50. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -20. -29. -39. -50. -57. -67. -72. -76. -77. -77. -76. -68. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 31.0 59.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/26/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 69 63 59 55 46 36 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 68 64 60 51 41 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 63 54 44 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 52 42 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT