* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 35 39 45 54 50 55 48 46 44 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 35 39 45 54 50 42 33 29 27 27 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 30 30 29 31 34 37 33 29 27 27 27 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 17 18 21 16 11 4 8 16 12 17 22 25 27 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 7 11 2 3 -3 0 3 4 4 3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 67 63 59 58 49 56 62 148 140 148 137 131 125 134 133 142 126 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.7 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 141 141 142 149 154 157 160 165 166 163 161 161 163 156 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 3 5 4 7 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 83 83 82 79 76 66 69 66 67 69 73 75 81 80 86 86 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 17 14 13 13 15 11 13 7 5 3 3 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 77 87 88 89 87 70 71 68 79 72 76 108 112 90 95 61 200 MB DIV 107 108 104 111 124 99 50 44 45 47 30 20 36 36 99 77 48 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -7 -8 -4 0 0 -1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 346 369 376 367 346 287 203 126 74 34 -25 -49 -155 -197 -108 65 299 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.1 90.3 90.4 90.4 90.2 89.8 89.8 89.9 89.5 88.4 87.1 86.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 4 4 3 2 4 6 5 4 3 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 11 10 10 12 20 21 21 25 35 43 7 24 34 25 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 28. 33. 37. 41. 44. 46. 47. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. 2. 5. -1. 2. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 11. 10. 14. 20. 29. 25. 30. 23. 21. 19. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 89.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2.1% 4.1% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##