* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 50 46 43 37 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 54 50 46 43 37 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 49 46 44 40 37 34 30 27 25 22 20 18 18 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 21 23 28 31 34 37 39 32 35 37 23 25 23 28 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 1 3 9 -2 0 7 -4 1 4 0 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 215 223 238 250 257 273 271 293 320 320 330 11 22 19 21 18 27 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.8 25.5 25.3 26.4 26.1 26.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 107 105 102 104 106 113 110 118 114 117 129 131 130 124 110 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 46 52 56 54 49 42 38 34 33 28 25 23 25 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 28 27 26 25 22 20 19 17 13 11 8 7 4 2 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 64 30 20 13 -4 0 7 15 10 -11 -40 -55 -53 -59 -84 -132 -61 200 MB DIV 30 0 -11 13 15 42 35 6 -66 -95 -92 -86 -31 -17 -44 10 4 700-850 TADV 12 10 10 3 0 -5 -8 -14 -8 -7 -3 -3 -7 -1 -1 2 14 LAND (KM) 1424 1353 1287 1215 1164 1114 1218 1329 1577 1842 2041 2161 2122 1970 1894 1831 1688 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.7 35.2 34.8 33.3 31.5 30.0 28.8 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.6 61.1 61.4 61.3 59.4 55.4 50.9 46.8 44.4 43.2 43.3 44.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 14 18 19 16 11 7 5 7 9 8 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 15 16 25 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -18. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -47. -51. -39. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -17. -23. -31. -38. -45. -52. -56. -58. -59. -60. -61. -45. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 31.5 60.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 6.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 54 50 46 43 37 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 51 48 42 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 49 43 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 41 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT