* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 44 41 36 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 44 41 36 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 48 46 43 39 36 33 29 26 24 22 20 19 18 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 24 29 29 30 34 42 35 23 31 27 22 24 29 22 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 5 4 -11 0 8 3 6 4 7 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 228 239 249 251 266 285 294 325 342 332 350 23 29 44 49 78 96 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.1 25.5 26.5 26.7 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 105 104 105 111 109 112 120 120 129 134 136 140 138 126 122 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 41 42 44 50 54 53 50 44 39 35 31 28 26 24 23 23 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 23 22 19 16 15 12 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 20 12 -6 -10 7 12 31 11 -20 -38 -50 -61 -77 -122 -112 -60 200 MB DIV -8 -18 13 14 22 32 6 -11 -120 -76 -79 -58 -45 -46 -57 -15 29 700-850 TADV 12 10 6 2 -1 2 -1 8 -3 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -2 -4 10 LAND (KM) 1375 1315 1253 1207 1181 1237 1391 1577 1875 2113 2156 2013 1842 1657 1560 1610 1733 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.2 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.3 34.1 32.9 30.9 29.1 27.6 26.7 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.1 61.4 61.3 60.7 57.5 53.0 48.5 45.3 43.8 43.7 44.8 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 9 17 20 19 14 9 7 7 9 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 14 40 26 39 23 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -19. -25. -30. -36. -40. -43. -45. -46. -46. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -14. -19. -27. -31. -38. -42. -45. -45. -46. -47. -45. -41. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.8 60.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 5.4% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 51 48 44 41 36 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 47 44 39 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 44 39 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 37 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT