* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 26 29 37 49 57 56 46 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 26 29 37 49 57 56 46 46 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 31 35 36 35 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 18 13 9 7 7 9 12 16 20 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 5 9 6 0 -2 0 0 5 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 63 67 65 54 61 78 122 126 120 144 140 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 143 144 149 153 155 157 157 157 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 5 4 7 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 78 76 76 67 70 67 67 67 72 74 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 14 16 19 20 18 10 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 86 82 80 76 61 60 63 68 61 49 34 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 105 117 97 81 48 60 84 51 44 40 43 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 352 331 312 293 273 254 219 177 128 88 62 23 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 10 11 13 17 18 20 20 20 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 5. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 12. 24. 32. 31. 21. 21. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 90.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.6% 4.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##