* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 45 42 35 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 45 42 35 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 50 47 44 40 36 33 30 28 26 25 23 22 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 29 31 28 29 33 36 22 22 24 17 25 26 23 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -1 -2 2 6 -3 -5 9 4 7 6 -2 -4 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 237 246 254 268 287 287 313 352 357 345 17 23 32 36 55 104 30 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.9 26.4 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.1 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 103 104 108 110 116 120 127 127 132 131 133 134 126 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 4 2 700-500 MB RH 42 45 50 53 53 49 45 36 34 31 28 27 25 22 21 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 21 20 17 15 13 10 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 -5 -14 -1 7 36 26 0 -21 -40 -49 -81 -105 -115 -70 -58 200 MB DIV -14 6 13 26 22 13 -11 -102 -101 -83 -72 -61 -45 -57 -6 7 -24 700-850 TADV 10 9 3 0 -5 -1 -1 2 2 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -7 1 LAND (KM) 1339 1286 1249 1223 1235 1398 1563 1830 2088 2098 1973 1844 1737 1686 1813 1685 1718 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.4 32.8 33.2 33.5 33.5 32.7 30.9 29.0 27.5 26.6 26.5 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.3 61.3 60.7 59.4 55.3 50.7 46.9 44.9 44.3 45.2 46.6 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 9 13 19 20 16 10 6 6 7 8 9 12 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 17 35 21 30 25 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -5. -9. -14. -19. -26. -30. -35. -39. -43. -43. -44. -44. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -26. -32. -39. -41. -43. -42. -43. -41. -39. -35. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.0 61.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.42 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.0% 6.4% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.3% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 49 45 42 35 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 47 44 37 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 44 37 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 35 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT