* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 28 29 33 41 53 58 57 49 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 28 29 33 41 53 58 57 49 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 26 29 33 37 37 34 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 15 10 7 7 7 10 17 22 22 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 4 8 10 3 1 -1 -1 -1 5 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 81 79 72 75 115 97 108 114 127 146 140 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 141 144 150 151 152 153 153 154 154 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 5 4 4 6 4 6 4 7 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 77 76 71 69 67 68 64 66 66 69 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 13 13 14 16 19 18 17 12 9 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 75 72 66 66 51 58 57 50 50 40 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 122 107 81 65 49 67 79 53 36 35 54 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 366 346 327 309 290 262 226 188 133 88 53 26 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 9 10 14 16 17 17 17 18 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 15. 21. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 6. 4. -3. -6. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 4. 8. 16. 28. 33. 32. 24. 20. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 91.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 16.6% 5.9% 3.3% 0.2% 7.5% 7.8% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 10.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.1% 6.3% 6.8% 4.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##