* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 45 41 34 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 45 41 34 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 48 45 40 36 32 29 26 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 28 30 28 30 29 39 29 22 24 18 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 4 3 -11 8 9 3 7 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 253 262 280 280 304 338 344 350 11 35 20 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.3 27.1 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 103 105 108 112 118 125 132 130 131 132 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.6 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 49 53 53 49 42 33 29 26 26 24 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 20 20 18 15 14 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 -4 -15 -4 -9 -17 -9 -16 -27 -45 -57 -59 -105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 15 20 30 20 -18 -12 -104 -82 -87 -65 -37 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 5 2 -1 1 -12 2 -8 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1296 1283 1263 1295 1333 1477 1658 1792 1708 1657 1635 1613 1602 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.6 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.5 31.7 30.0 28.5 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.3 61.0 60.8 59.7 58.7 56.1 52.8 50.4 49.9 49.9 50.1 50.6 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 6 9 10 13 14 10 6 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 25 25 24 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -21. -26. -31. -36. -40. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -26. -35. -41. -44. -44. -44. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.3 61.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.8% 5.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/27/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 48 45 41 34 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 50 47 43 36 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 44 37 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 41 34 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT