* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST CP872023 10/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 37 40 45 48 54 54 52 53 34 31 33 25 16 6 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 1 1 2 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -9 -8 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 271 268 262 268 271 259 255 252 266 275 270 276 294 333 321 289 241 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 134 136 140 141 141 141 143 145 144 143 143 143 145 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 18 19 21 23 23 26 27 29 30 31 33 29 31 32 33 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 9 6 0 -17 -27 -29 -28 -24 -23 -31 -41 -52 -44 -34 -21 200 MB DIV -38 -42 -20 -3 9 40 39 -11 -11 -47 -30 -10 -48 -25 -38 -28 -12 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 -2 4 LAND (KM) 1006 915 836 762 687 543 432 399 480 604 767 904 1015 1143 1292 1492 1745 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.6 14.2 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.2 148.2 149.1 150.1 151.1 153.1 154.9 156.4 158.0 159.7 161.4 163.3 165.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 16 18 14 14 23 23 21 28 27 16 13 20 28 32 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -24. -39. -54. -63. -68. -71. -72. -66. -56. -48. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -18. -29. -41. -53. -59. -61. -62. -59. -50. -38. -29. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 147.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP872023 TEST 10/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP872023 TEST 10/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##