* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 28 30 33 39 44 48 45 42 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 28 30 33 39 44 48 40 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 32 33 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 14 13 13 7 9 7 14 20 14 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 10 11 6 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 75 68 76 77 70 105 155 156 157 142 156 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 142 143 145 145 148 154 155 156 158 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 73 70 73 67 67 63 65 65 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 11 13 13 13 12 11 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 73 69 67 66 65 57 62 56 64 53 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 112 73 44 38 44 66 58 58 56 41 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 327 320 310 300 290 259 221 162 53 -2 -13 -44 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 2 1 3 4 5 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 10 10 12 11 13 18 22 25 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 37. 40. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 23. 20. 17. 15. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 91.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 9.7% 2.7% 1.5% 0.1% 5.0% 8.6% 19.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 8.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 5.7% 7.2% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##