* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/28/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 33 44 52 55 47 41 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 33 44 52 55 47 41 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 30 35 37 33 29 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 10 7 5 9 15 22 19 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 12 6 7 3 -3 -3 -1 1 3 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 76 87 98 96 68 117 147 134 136 130 153 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 151 153 154 152 154 154 155 158 162 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 6 4 6 4 6 4 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 73 71 71 68 66 69 74 78 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 14 14 15 18 19 18 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 65 59 62 58 64 56 49 46 42 75 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 61 43 38 54 61 84 61 55 41 55 35 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 275 268 286 305 291 227 167 83 27 22 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 2 3 2 2 3 6 6 4 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 16 18 20 17 16 17 20 23 30 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 32. 36. 40. 43. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 1. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 19. 27. 30. 22. 16. 14. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 92.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 10.0% 3.1% 1.7% 0.1% 6.9% 4.1% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 8.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 6.9% 6.2% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##