* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 31 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 31 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 33 29 25 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 27 31 35 35 33 18 28 18 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 2 0 -6 16 2 2 4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 281 273 281 295 338 329 338 14 19 352 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.7 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 103 106 110 112 119 125 129 133 132 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 49 45 34 29 24 21 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 16 15 13 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -1 -5 -21 -29 -35 -34 -43 -68 -74 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 14 23 0 -15 1 -75 -64 -46 -30 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 -1 -4 -1 -6 0 0 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1247 1278 1314 1390 1472 1680 1672 1605 1535 1514 1527 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 32.9 32.8 32.6 32.4 31.3 29.7 28.6 27.9 27.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 60.1 59.2 57.8 56.4 53.7 51.9 51.5 51.7 52.0 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 10 12 12 12 8 5 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 10 20 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -18. -24. -28. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -23. -29. -32. -31. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.9 61.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.17 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/28/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 37 34 31 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 34 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 35 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT