* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 45 53 55 50 45 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 45 53 55 50 45 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 36 37 34 31 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 8 5 10 8 15 20 18 19 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 7 6 6 0 0 0 0 2 -1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 78 90 82 76 87 130 137 126 127 139 142 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 155 155 155 152 152 153 154 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 6 5 6 5 7 5 6 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 74 74 71 71 67 67 67 72 74 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 15 17 18 17 13 10 10 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 64 63 61 64 61 56 53 59 48 46 71 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 42 56 55 63 63 62 74 85 86 60 54 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 315 338 361 359 358 339 292 191 121 80 49 22 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 2 4 5 4 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 21 24 24 24 23 20 15 15 17 19 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 28. 32. 36. 39. 42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. -1. -1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 20. 28. 30. 25. 20. 17. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 92.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 2.1% 1.7% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 5.3% 5.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##