* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 30 28 25 21 17 27 41 56 59 73 86 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 30 28 25 21 17 27 41 56 59 48 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 26 24 22 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 25 27 24 24 23 25 31 39 47 79 129 118 100 41 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 -4 -2 0 6 0 -43 -27 -10 1 2 SHEAR DIR 231 223 230 251 262 266 283 271 269 248 252 270 280 299 313 308 253 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 27.5 27.4 25.6 24.5 24.7 10.6 13.4 14.0 14.6 7.1 6.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 154 151 151 151 143 130 129 112 107 112 73 75 76 76 69 69 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -53.4 -51.9 -50.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 69 68 71 66 66 63 61 68 74 73 57 60 62 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 11 10 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 64 56 30 23 24 -29 -28 -31 3 100 103 51 24 99 172 308 200 MB DIV 76 97 76 35 16 8 -1 1 30 72 135 143 39 29 27 91 51 700-850 TADV 17 16 14 21 17 -2 4 5 10 34 111 462 422 239 171 183 29 LAND (KM) 127 232 297 354 405 512 579 764 872 898 738 352 1309 678 14 83 195 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.6 21.5 22.3 23.0 24.3 25.8 27.7 29.8 33.2 38.4 45.2 50.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.2 67.0 67.5 67.9 68.4 69.2 70.1 70.2 69.3 66.4 59.9 49.0 35.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 9 8 8 9 10 15 28 46 57 49 48 37 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 77 68 60 58 56 52 22 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -14. -9. -2. -1. 4. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 9. 16. 18. 16. 16. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. 2. 16. 31. 34. 48. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 66.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 12.5% 8.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.6% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/28/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 32 30 28 25 21 17 27 41 56 59 48 61 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 30 28 26 23 19 15 25 39 54 57 46 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT