* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 38 47 56 58 53 49 49 51 52 56 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 38 47 56 58 53 49 49 51 52 56 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 36 37 34 32 32 33 34 35 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 9 8 11 11 19 20 18 21 23 20 12 8 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 7 6 5 -2 0 -1 0 2 0 -2 0 1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 84 80 72 86 114 139 134 132 128 137 161 174 161 115 109 114 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.3 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 158 160 159 157 151 152 153 154 156 160 160 155 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 6 4 6 4 4 3 3 2 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 76 76 74 73 71 69 68 72 75 81 83 83 82 83 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 12 12 14 16 18 17 13 11 13 15 16 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 59 60 58 59 57 52 42 45 46 40 66 83 92 74 51 40 36 200 MB DIV 32 43 46 46 37 40 36 79 94 92 50 45 72 65 20 26 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 5 4 5 6 9 LAND (KM) 355 375 395 393 391 321 241 154 82 51 50 54 14 60 138 196 205 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 1 2 3 5 5 4 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 24 24 25 21 17 13 16 18 19 22 28 27 25 20 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 37. 40. 44. 46. 46. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -15. -11. -8. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 13. 22. 31. 33. 28. 24. 24. 26. 28. 31. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 93.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 22.6% 6.9% 3.5% 0.3% 5.7% 7.5% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 1.4% 0.3% Consensus: 0.8% 13.9% 6.1% 1.2% 0.1% 7.1% 7.5% 4.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##