* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 36 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 36 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 32 28 24 21 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 31 31 32 33 23 23 21 13 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 -4 -4 12 8 9 5 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 278 292 312 330 344 344 10 28 14 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.6 26.2 26.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 112 118 119 127 128 129 136 140 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 43 37 34 27 24 24 20 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 16 16 13 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 3 5 6 -3 -18 -35 -39 -58 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 29 3 5 0 -79 -66 -57 -25 -26 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -4 -6 -6 0 -4 1 0 -4 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1312 1402 1473 1585 1656 1858 1813 1713 1561 1502 1514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.1 32.9 32.4 31.8 30.2 28.5 27.5 27.1 27.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.0 56.5 54.9 53.1 51.4 49.2 48.5 48.9 50.5 51.5 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 14 10 7 6 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 15 21 27 26 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -26. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -6. -12. -20. -27. -30. -29. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.3 58.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.28 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 8.6% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/28/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 36 36 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 37 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT