* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 38 36 34 29 25 22 29 41 52 56 69 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 38 36 34 29 25 22 29 41 52 42 31 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 35 35 32 29 27 25 22 21 19 19 18 20 29 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 27 24 22 25 23 29 32 35 47 68 116 117 113 72 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 3 2 2 4 -3 0 -4 3 12 7 -34 -25 -30 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 227 232 253 255 256 277 276 274 243 243 244 278 300 320 325 305 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.1 25.4 24.0 23.5 17.0 14.4 15.9 13.3 10.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 154 154 149 140 132 126 112 106 104 80 77 79 75 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -52.7 -50.7 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 67 69 70 68 68 65 65 61 67 66 62 58 63 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 13 13 12 10 10 8 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 46 36 43 8 -28 -27 -15 48 137 70 13 -52 57 48 N/A 200 MB DIV 89 64 26 3 8 -3 15 25 47 88 136 100 -1 4 18 -15 N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 16 14 13 1 8 8 0 54 95 260 364 283 242 128 N/A LAND (KM) 200 218 264 313 350 394 561 760 809 913 713 758 1195 443 -150 -162 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.1 24.4 26.2 28.1 30.7 34.5 40.0 45.8 49.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.5 69.1 69.7 70.2 71.1 71.6 71.1 69.3 64.9 56.2 43.0 26.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 8 7 9 9 12 20 35 51 59 56 49 37 31 N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 63 67 69 61 32 28 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 810 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 23. 26. 27. 30. 36. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -15. -12. -7. -4. -4. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 15. 14. 14. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. -1. -5. -8. -1. 11. 22. 26. 40. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 67.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 12.7% 8.7% 5.6% 5.2% 7.1% 6.5% 8.3% Logistic: 2.0% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.8% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/28/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 38 36 34 29 25 22 29 41 52 42 31 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 35 33 31 26 22 19 26 38 49 39 28 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 29 27 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT