* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 46 50 50 46 46 47 49 51 55 57 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 46 50 50 46 46 47 49 51 55 57 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 38 42 42 39 36 35 35 35 36 37 40 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 11 12 13 15 17 21 18 22 21 20 18 11 4 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 4 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 67 54 73 81 108 106 113 112 129 143 140 134 146 156 139 201 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.4 28.0 28.8 29.2 29.1 28.4 28.0 29.3 27.8 27.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 153 153 153 146 142 150 153 152 147 144 158 143 143 151 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 3 4 2 4 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 77 78 76 75 75 72 74 74 78 79 83 81 82 77 75 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 14 17 16 14 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 53 58 52 50 45 39 40 40 44 51 84 79 65 41 22 2 -1 200 MB DIV 45 56 50 35 26 49 72 89 81 60 88 69 73 45 -26 -63 -47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 0 2 4 4 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 433 428 425 417 410 367 278 201 136 126 182 256 364 479 666 733 808 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 4 5 5 4 3 3 6 9 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 18 18 18 16 10 9 17 22 26 17 7 18 6 5 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 44. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -20. -23. -23. -20. -15. -9. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 1. -3. -2. -0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 16. 20. 20. 16. 16. 17. 19. 21. 25. 27. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 92.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.9% 12.5% 9.4% 0.0% 14.5% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 13.7% 3.7% 1.8% 0.2% 2.1% 4.4% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 11.4% 5.5% 3.8% 0.1% 5.7% 5.9% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##