* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 54 59 61 61 61 61 61 60 57 55 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 54 59 61 61 61 61 61 60 57 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 47 50 51 53 55 55 54 51 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 5 3 6 8 8 10 12 11 10 10 13 16 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -4 -1 -4 -2 -2 4 8 9 9 8 4 SHEAR DIR 140 97 93 98 84 68 121 145 152 145 146 171 184 216 244 265 294 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 148 147 148 148 151 153 154 152 153 154 154 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 53 51 53 53 53 50 50 47 44 45 44 46 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -7 -10 -14 -13 -15 -25 -7 -11 -10 4 19 6 -8 -19 -31 -29 200 MB DIV 11 -5 -5 -21 -1 18 -3 27 37 27 1 -24 -53 -15 0 1 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1950 1945 1935 1926 1906 1851 1765 1671 1569 1460 1367 1312 1321 1384 1490 1613 1746 LAT (DEG N) 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.7 8.2 8.9 9.6 10.4 11.1 11.5 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.2 118.0 117.8 117.6 117.2 116.6 116.1 115.5 114.9 114.4 114.1 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 1 2 4 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 64 64 63 60 54 46 36 30 26 23 22 22 19 15 13 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 20. 29. 36. 41. 46. 48. 50. 51. 49. 47. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 29. 34. 36. 36. 36. 36. 36. 35. 32. 30. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.3 118.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.60 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 43.2% 27.7% 7.1% 9.2% 2.0% 0.9% 29.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.5% 0.8% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 2.5% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 24.2% 15.7% 2.5% 3.4% 8.0% 7.0% 9.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##