* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 29 30 28 28 28 31 45 60 69 73 89 100 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 29 30 28 28 28 31 45 60 69 36 40 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 27 25 23 22 21 19 19 20 20 27 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 24 21 22 23 26 32 34 36 58 102 125 113 75 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 5 0 1 -1 -1 4 8 9 -22 -34 -13 -8 10 5 SHEAR DIR 235 249 261 260 264 277 262 245 239 244 250 283 303 318 311 262 176 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 28.3 26.6 24.3 23.8 19.7 15.0 14.6 15.6 7.1 7.1 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 149 146 142 135 140 121 105 105 87 77 77 78 68 69 67 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -52.7 -52.4 -49.9 -50.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 67 67 66 67 67 65 61 57 71 67 64 59 77 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 31 31 33 26 -14 -16 -10 15 101 146 50 1 40 182 288 271 200 MB DIV 50 28 13 9 -2 18 25 17 91 115 139 65 23 36 66 112 48 700-850 TADV 14 10 4 8 2 6 4 3 37 114 175 465 346 261 244 10 38 LAND (KM) 285 334 379 376 371 447 553 703 716 812 459 1086 748 75 -176 171 160 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.1 25.3 26.9 28.8 31.7 36.3 42.5 48.5 50.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.1 68.9 69.6 70.3 71.0 72.4 72.8 72.2 69.6 63.6 53.1 38.1 20.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 8 8 9 9 13 25 44 57 60 55 41 27 27 21 HEAT CONTENT 58 61 60 53 36 24 39 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 24. 25. 30. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -15. -10. -3. 1. 1. 6. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 18. 16. 15. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 15. 30. 39. 43. 59. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.7 68.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.3% 6.3% 4.1% 3.6% 5.7% 5.2% 6.6% Logistic: 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.3% 1.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.7% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/29/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 32 29 30 28 28 28 31 45 60 69 36 40 51 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 27 28 26 26 26 29 43 58 67 34 38 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 23 24 22 22 22 25 39 54 63 30 34 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 18 16 16 16 19 33 48 57 24 28 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT