* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 56 59 59 57 55 52 51 49 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 56 59 59 57 55 52 51 49 48 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 48 51 52 53 53 52 48 43 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 4 5 4 4 12 17 16 18 20 23 23 17 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 -8 -8 -7 -1 1 4 9 4 1 SHEAR DIR 83 93 68 96 96 99 111 145 151 159 170 195 198 222 255 285 320 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 147 147 148 151 154 154 153 152 153 155 153 150 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 50 52 53 52 50 48 47 42 41 41 45 49 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -13 -15 -16 -21 -11 -9 -13 -1 9 15 8 0 -9 -14 -10 200 MB DIV -11 -12 -24 -9 12 8 10 24 15 -4 -20 -36 -34 -19 -10 -15 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1930 1915 1905 1886 1866 1803 1709 1593 1476 1366 1288 1257 1296 1398 1552 1701 1857 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.9 9.7 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.5 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.2 118.0 117.8 117.6 117.1 116.6 115.9 115.1 114.3 113.7 113.4 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 3 1 3 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 61 59 59 56 52 43 27 20 24 23 23 23 22 24 18 18 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 20. 29. 36. 41. 45. 47. 49. 51. 50. 48. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -5. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 31. 34. 34. 32. 30. 27. 26. 24. 23. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.5 118.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.54 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.4% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 30.5% 16.3% 4.3% 4.2% 1.5% 0.9% 23.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 18.2% 11.8% 1.4% 1.4% 7.9% 6.3% 7.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##