* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 21 18 23 42 54 60 67 83 98 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 21 18 23 42 54 50 32 47 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 15 16 17 19 28 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 22 25 25 23 32 40 40 50 79 135 120 102 48 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 5 1 4 -3 0 -7 3 13 3 -50 -24 -11 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 251 263 262 266 273 271 260 238 250 245 266 286 304 313 303 253 214 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.4 25.2 24.0 23.8 13.3 13.6 14.8 17.2 7.1 7.0 5.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 146 142 138 136 129 110 105 105 75 76 77 80 69 68 66 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -53.3 -51.1 -49.2 -51.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 65 65 64 65 64 65 67 74 75 74 68 64 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 24 14 -5 -34 -23 -13 47 133 82 40 2 86 242 207 233 200 MB DIV 11 2 -3 -7 -4 13 43 37 79 142 105 43 45 27 92 45 -2 700-850 TADV 13 8 5 1 4 7 6 2 52 145 191 332 227 196 230 34 69 LAND (KM) 331 398 414 407 427 569 666 734 862 670 512 1468 405 -2 -102 135 140 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.9 26.4 28.0 30.4 34.0 39.5 45.6 50.1 49.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.3 70.0 70.7 71.5 72.3 72.1 70.6 66.5 58.6 46.5 31.1 14.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 9 8 10 19 33 49 56 54 50 35 28 25 19 HEAT CONTENT 60 58 55 38 25 34 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 22. 24. 32. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -10. -13. -14. -6. 0. 4. 3. 9. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. -0. -1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 16. 17. 16. 15. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -7. 12. 24. 30. 37. 54. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 68.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.5% 5.9% 4.2% 3.9% 6.0% 4.2% 3.9% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/29/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 21 18 23 42 54 50 32 47 62 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 26 25 23 20 17 22 41 53 49 31 46 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 23 21 18 15 20 39 51 47 29 44 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT