* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192023 10/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 36 40 44 46 47 46 45 48 49 52 57 62 68 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 36 40 44 46 47 46 45 48 49 52 57 62 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 35 34 32 29 27 26 25 25 28 32 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 11 11 14 22 18 25 22 22 14 7 4 4 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 0 1 5 4 0 1 1 3 0 5 12 8 6 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 70 84 105 120 112 132 133 143 133 131 106 97 51 342 329 233 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.4 27.9 29.0 28.4 27.7 28.0 28.6 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 152 152 149 150 154 156 143 155 148 141 146 153 154 155 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 5 5 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 75 75 74 74 73 78 80 78 73 76 71 67 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 21 20 19 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 45 43 36 39 44 43 55 49 32 27 16 3 -1 -3 -7 200 MB DIV 52 34 45 58 52 74 114 101 105 76 59 27 21 -36 -15 11 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 2 6 5 6 4 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 384 352 320 305 291 210 117 33 67 240 454 623 675 747 932 1016 970 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.3 12.9 11.6 10.1 9.3 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 92.8 92.7 92.6 92.5 91.6 90.7 89.9 89.5 90.7 92.7 94.6 95.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 3 6 5 3 4 10 11 8 9 15 15 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 16 15 11 14 19 20 8 14 11 6 6 14 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 26. 31. 37. 41. 44. 47. 47. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. -20. -19. -15. -10. -6. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 18. 19. 22. 27. 32. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 93.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.7% 13.9% 10.8% 0.0% 15.6% 13.8% 9.5% Logistic: 0.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.3% 4.9% 3.7% 0.0% 5.6% 5.0% 3.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 12.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##