* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 29 28 27 24 22 18 18 28 47 59 67 68 80 89 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 29 28 27 24 22 18 18 28 47 59 46 43 35 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 22 20 19 18 17 19 23 25 32 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 27 27 24 23 35 39 36 52 98 133 116 74 33 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 4 0 0 -6 -1 2 11 -18 -44 -23 0 4 5 7 SHEAR DIR 264 266 269 277 284 260 252 247 254 252 268 284 298 299 265 230 192 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.0 26.8 25.2 24.1 20.7 13.3 13.1 14.4 14.9 11.6 12.3 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 143 140 137 134 135 123 111 107 90 75 75 77 73 67 64 61 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -51.9 -49.1 -49.6 -51.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 67 66 67 67 66 69 67 77 73 68 60 74 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 12 -9 -26 -24 -25 -9 88 140 66 62 129 197 331 312 199 200 MB DIV 5 1 5 -8 16 22 32 58 84 150 89 50 34 73 56 17 17 700-850 TADV 5 6 0 4 6 3 6 5 4 128 285 224 190 196 19 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 372 384 377 396 441 581 713 773 859 633 733 1192 196 -100 53 -18 0 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.2 26.7 28.4 31.0 35.1 41.1 47.4 51.1 50.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.2 70.9 71.5 72.1 72.4 71.8 69.5 64.8 55.8 42.9 27.5 12.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 12 22 38 52 56 50 43 25 16 6 1 HEAT CONTENT 58 52 35 26 22 36 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 20. 22. 25. 26. 30. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -10. -13. -12. -4. 4. 8. 8. 14. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. -0. 1. 4. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 12. 14. 15. 12. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -12. -2. 17. 29. 37. 38. 50. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 69.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.8% 8.3% 5.9% 0.0% 7.7% 5.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.2% 3.0% 2.3% 0.0% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/29/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 29 28 27 24 22 18 18 28 47 59 46 43 35 45 18HR AGO 30 29 30 29 28 27 24 22 18 18 28 47 59 46 43 35 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT