* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192023 10/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 34 37 38 37 36 38 41 46 48 52 56 62 67 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 34 37 38 37 36 38 41 46 48 52 56 62 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 31 28 26 25 26 29 32 34 37 42 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 14 16 23 19 23 18 9 8 13 7 2 9 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 0 -5 0 0 1 -1 1 0 8 11 1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 79 92 107 124 115 112 118 122 163 152 140 109 98 99 202 181 136 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.1 28.6 29.4 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 153 150 146 148 148 143 149 159 145 149 154 158 161 159 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 5 5 4 6 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 76 74 72 71 69 74 74 74 72 69 65 62 67 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 18 16 15 14 14 15 18 17 17 16 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 48 48 49 46 43 52 38 41 58 42 42 24 13 5 0 12 34 200 MB DIV 37 52 75 69 91 120 84 94 65 58 29 39 -24 0 2 10 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 4 5 6 8 6 3 0 LAND (KM) 370 357 345 313 282 220 144 130 224 316 439 637 789 872 898 973 1119 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.4 11.8 11.2 10.5 9.7 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.0 93.0 92.6 92.3 91.5 90.6 90.0 90.8 92.0 93.3 95.5 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 4 5 4 2 6 7 10 13 14 13 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 13 12 9 11 13 8 10 17 8 12 16 14 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. 44. 47. 47. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -17. -16. -17. -16. -12. -7. -3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 8. 11. 16. 18. 22. 26. 32. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 92.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 15.6% 12.9% 9.9% 0.0% 15.3% 13.8% 9.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.0% 5.0% 3.7% 0.1% 5.6% 4.9% 3.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 9.0% 12.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##