* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 49 51 49 46 44 42 41 38 35 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 49 51 49 46 44 42 41 38 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 39 40 40 38 33 27 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 0 2 2 5 11 13 15 18 22 26 33 38 45 45 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -6 -9 -6 0 2 4 4 8 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 50 10 32 55 89 180 180 170 192 201 232 237 261 243 247 240 227 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.5 26.9 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 147 147 149 151 151 151 150 149 149 148 138 132 142 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 47 49 48 46 47 45 40 38 37 37 37 40 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 1 5 0 4 7 10 18 26 8 4 -10 -27 -49 -38 -19 200 MB DIV -6 -2 25 33 25 21 33 -6 -27 -30 -43 -14 -5 -5 -5 -8 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 5 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1846 1817 1783 1747 1702 1597 1463 1331 1217 1124 1073 1030 977 857 702 520 408 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.3 11.2 12.1 12.8 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 118.6 118.5 118.2 117.9 117.2 116.3 115.4 114.4 113.6 113.1 113.0 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 5 4 2 3 4 7 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 24 20 15 13 13 13 16 33 45 48 44 11 3 14 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 18. 27. 33. 37. 40. 43. 44. 45. 44. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 24. 26. 24. 21. 19. 17. 16. 13. 10. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 118.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.82 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 30.4% 25.2% 5.0% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 16.6% 13.4% 1.7% 1.2% 6.2% 5.2% 1.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##