* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 35 35 33 30 25 21 26 40 55 63 78 82 101 113 V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 35 35 33 30 25 21 26 40 55 55 35 39 52 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 33 31 29 26 23 21 21 25 30 29 34 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 24 23 22 40 43 45 60 101 132 124 103 64 26 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 2 -1 -5 -2 -3 4 12 -9 -41 -30 -15 -6 6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 270 279 283 281 263 247 243 256 248 265 278 295 309 301 268 227 204 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.7 25.9 25.6 24.1 23.0 9.9 13.4 14.8 15.9 7.0 7.0 5.9 5.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 134 135 132 113 113 106 101 73 75 77 79 69 67 64 62 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -50.4 -49.3 -50.5 -52.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 58 59 58 57 63 63 69 70 77 72 66 72 69 77 83 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 8 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -7 -25 -43 -46 -29 3 44 96 57 70 113 211 210 240 346 375 200 MB DIV 12 -7 -10 30 29 50 55 87 111 91 56 54 25 68 29 1 -18 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 5 6 6 8 71 97 232 175 74 121 293 23 67 17 LAND (KM) 390 420 465 440 444 566 620 791 637 417 1448 588 -21 -101 40 44 100 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.5 26.2 26.9 28.5 30.9 34.3 39.6 45.8 50.2 50.1 48.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.1 73.0 73.7 74.0 73.7 71.7 67.2 59.3 47.7 33.1 18.1 4.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 10 20 33 48 55 51 47 42 29 22 15 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 23 24 33 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 14. 15. 17. 26. 33. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -9. 2. 8. 12. 10. 17. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. 1. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 12. 13. 15. 13. 12. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -9. 5. 20. 28. 43. 47. 66. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.3 71.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.0% 9.8% 8.2% 5.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 3.7% 3.0% 1.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/29/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 35 35 35 33 30 25 21 26 40 55 55 35 39 52 65 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 31 28 23 19 24 38 53 53 33 37 50 63 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 29 26 21 17 22 36 51 51 31 35 48 61 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT