* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192023 10/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 34 36 33 32 34 41 46 52 58 62 62 65 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 34 36 33 32 34 41 46 52 58 62 62 65 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 24 24 24 27 33 40 45 48 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 21 22 20 20 20 13 10 9 8 6 5 14 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 -2 -4 -3 -2 3 6 8 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 89 101 104 101 102 116 108 136 138 127 100 137 84 242 257 211 214 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.4 28.3 29.2 27.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 147 145 143 147 149 146 147 158 139 151 154 158 162 158 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 6 4 5 3 4 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 73 72 73 74 77 76 76 71 71 68 65 61 58 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 16 11 10 10 12 13 14 16 16 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 47 46 48 40 48 55 61 52 38 24 20 12 12 19 9 200 MB DIV 58 79 78 93 116 98 102 75 68 56 31 3 -6 9 -7 -25 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 4 3 3 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 391 368 346 314 287 236 170 180 283 382 493 675 812 911 936 988 1102 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 11.8 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.6 8.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.7 92.5 92.3 91.9 91.5 90.6 89.8 89.5 90.0 91.4 93.6 96.1 98.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 5 3 3 5 9 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 10 8 8 13 16 12 8 17 5 15 16 14 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 32. 38. 42. 45. 48. 48. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -11. -8. -5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -4. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 3. 2. 4. 11. 16. 22. 28. 32. 32. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 92.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 15.1% 12.2% 9.1% 0.0% 14.0% 12.9% 9.1% Logistic: 1.3% 8.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 1.5% 3.8% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.1% 4.8% 3.4% 0.2% 5.2% 5.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##