* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 32 38 42 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 27 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 32 38 42 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 32 33 32 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 0 1 8 11 14 14 20 23 35 38 45 45 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 -4 4 2 5 4 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 356 34 60 224 241 163 175 190 220 236 247 252 258 242 246 236 221 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.2 27.1 27.7 28.4 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 148 148 151 151 151 149 150 143 133 133 138 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 48 47 45 43 43 39 36 34 33 32 32 29 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 12 3 4 6 2 7 17 21 11 -12 -24 -43 -45 -31 -27 200 MB DIV -7 17 27 19 0 56 29 1 -34 -21 -14 9 3 -23 5 -31 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 4 5 5 2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1828 1805 1765 1719 1674 1549 1414 1270 1142 1015 914 816 704 613 544 542 566 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.9 11.8 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.3 16.1 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.8 118.9 118.7 118.4 118.1 117.4 116.5 115.6 114.8 114.0 113.3 112.9 112.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 5 4 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 20 17 14 13 13 13 14 35 26 5 4 9 21 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. 41. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 13. 17. 18. 16. 14. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.8 118.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.65 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 28.9% 27.0% 5.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 15.5% 13.7% 1.7% 1.2% 5.9% 5.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##