* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 32 27 21 20 31 47 58 67 80 84 103 115 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 32 27 21 20 31 47 58 67 46 41 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 33 31 28 24 22 21 23 29 35 31 32 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 27 22 22 30 48 40 51 83 138 134 112 95 46 26 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 0 -7 3 9 1 -44 -38 -12 -10 -4 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 278 281 280 259 246 237 244 250 258 265 280 292 301 285 248 226 222 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.0 25.8 24.4 23.5 18.9 13.9 13.1 14.7 16.5 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 135 131 123 113 105 104 85 76 75 77 79 68 65 63 60 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -50.2 -49.7 -48.7 -49.5 -52.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 55 57 60 67 74 76 71 65 63 64 68 75 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -28 -43 -40 -27 -18 18 71 108 47 116 181 200 237 277 318 332 200 MB DIV -3 -4 31 44 37 21 59 89 133 102 68 24 38 1 -61 -38 -70 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 5 4 4 1 91 198 268 115 38 148 157 25 19 6 LAND (KM) 407 459 412 408 443 633 608 718 474 720 1286 402 9 -36 -21 -90 -90 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.6 26.2 26.9 27.5 29.3 32.1 36.5 42.6 48.8 51.2 50.1 49.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.2 73.3 74.0 74.4 74.4 73.6 70.7 65.0 55.6 43.1 28.9 15.1 2.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 7 14 24 41 52 51 44 45 37 25 17 11 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 34 44 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 15. 17. 26. 33. 43. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -11. -5. 6. 13. 16. 14. 21. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 5. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 11. 12. 13. 10. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -8. -14. -15. -4. 12. 23. 32. 45. 49. 68. 80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.9 72.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.1% 9.3% 7.7% 4.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.8% 3.3% 2.7% 1.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/30/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 32 27 21 20 31 47 58 67 46 41 40 31 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 31 26 20 19 30 46 57 66 45 40 39 30 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 28 23 17 16 27 43 54 63 42 37 36 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT