* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 39 41 42 37 36 38 42 50 55 56 57 59 63 65 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 39 41 42 37 36 38 42 50 55 56 57 59 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 38 33 32 31 30 33 38 43 45 45 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 20 23 16 19 25 19 6 5 2 5 10 10 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 2 4 -2 -6 0 1 6 7 3 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 97 101 100 97 101 101 111 138 136 143 110 206 245 234 191 174 175 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.8 29.4 29.2 28.3 28.5 29.0 27.3 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 144 143 150 154 154 147 149 155 138 149 154 155 160 161 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 73 74 74 76 77 78 75 74 74 67 65 64 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 17 15 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 43 44 47 45 43 72 51 40 39 18 7 5 3 0 17 200 MB DIV 49 75 86 98 120 93 99 79 63 21 12 -7 -50 -56 -31 20 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 1 0 2 2 1 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 356 341 331 287 239 170 127 151 287 413 538 708 795 877 924 981 1017 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.1 11.9 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.3 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 91.9 91.5 91.0 90.4 89.5 88.9 89.0 90.2 91.9 93.9 96.1 98.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 5 4 1 4 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 7 9 16 23 22 10 9 15 4 13 17 13 15 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. 44. 44. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -19. -17. -15. -12. -10. -6. -4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 2. 1. 3. 7. 15. 20. 21. 22. 24. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 92.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.3% 14.1% 11.0% 6.5% 16.8% 14.3% 9.2% Logistic: 2.7% 15.2% 4.0% 2.6% 1.2% 3.9% 7.1% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 11.2% 6.1% 4.6% 2.6% 7.0% 7.2% 4.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##