* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 37 40 40 36 33 31 29 27 25 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 37 40 40 36 33 31 29 27 25 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 29 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 3 5 9 12 16 17 22 30 40 45 46 43 45 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -4 -5 -6 1 2 4 4 4 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 68 110 254 267 222 177 170 201 223 246 247 259 244 246 238 226 224 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.5 27.0 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 150 151 151 151 148 149 146 136 131 132 136 139 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 44 46 44 44 39 35 33 34 34 32 32 31 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 6 9 2 7 10 19 19 7 -13 -22 -50 -48 -37 -22 -6 200 MB DIV 17 33 6 3 19 23 11 -5 -7 7 1 -4 -15 6 -1 -48 -52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 5 4 3 0 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1739 1695 1640 1594 1539 1409 1280 1161 1049 951 859 769 680 596 543 537 560 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.3 118.0 117.7 117.4 116.6 115.8 115.0 114.3 113.7 113.2 113.0 112.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 13 13 13 13 13 25 36 12 3 4 8 14 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. 40. 38. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 12. 15. 15. 11. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 118.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.66 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.3% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 31.4% 28.9% 6.3% 6.0% 0.4% 0.0% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 18.3% 15.4% 2.1% 2.0% 6.8% 5.7% 1.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##