* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 42 40 38 39 42 47 51 55 58 61 64 69 71 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 42 40 38 39 42 47 51 55 58 61 64 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 37 35 33 33 34 36 38 40 42 47 54 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 21 15 14 23 18 14 15 14 6 5 6 10 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -3 -1 -3 0 9 8 0 -3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 100 98 98 98 104 106 126 151 151 127 137 98 138 109 134 105 139 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.4 29.2 29.5 28.8 28.2 28.7 28.8 27.2 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 143 146 153 156 151 145 152 153 137 150 154 157 160 158 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 5 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 74 75 75 78 79 77 76 76 72 67 63 65 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 19 14 13 13 13 16 16 17 15 14 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 49 47 45 41 66 72 50 36 18 12 3 12 4 10 28 200 MB DIV 74 91 107 118 126 85 93 102 61 30 42 -14 -40 -27 35 9 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 4 5 6 4 3 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 338 309 269 228 194 131 108 196 316 429 573 718 805 891 948 1046 1148 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.3 11.6 10.8 10.2 9.6 9.2 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 91.5 90.9 90.4 89.9 89.3 89.0 89.4 90.5 92.2 94.2 96.5 98.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 3 2 6 7 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 9 12 19 22 18 9 11 14 4 15 16 13 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. 44. 44. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -15. -12. -8. -4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.0 92.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 18.9% 15.4% 12.3% 7.5% 18.7% 15.5% 11.3% Logistic: 1.4% 11.0% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9% 3.5% 6.7% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 10.2% 6.3% 4.8% 2.8% 7.5% 7.4% 5.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##