* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 29 31 30 26 22 19 17 18 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 29 31 30 26 22 19 17 18 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 2 7 7 14 14 21 26 34 40 46 46 53 54 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 1 7 4 3 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 90 343 300 223 181 176 183 223 225 247 255 258 241 233 231 223 217 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.1 27.4 27.0 27.1 28.1 27.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 151 151 151 149 149 149 142 135 131 133 144 142 129 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 46 45 43 41 37 35 32 33 32 34 35 35 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 6 4 10 5 16 21 10 2 -4 -19 -40 -31 -21 -7 15 200 MB DIV 33 10 3 6 14 11 0 -22 -10 -6 4 1 4 2 -30 -25 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 1 2 4 4 6 4 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1689 1634 1579 1524 1464 1344 1216 1108 1011 918 849 763 649 506 354 261 239 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.2 117.9 117.6 117.3 116.9 116.1 115.3 114.5 113.9 113.4 113.2 113.1 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 18 38 27 9 3 4 16 17 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 39. 39. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -21. -24. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -8. -11. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 118.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.51 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 11.5% 9.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 9.7% 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 5.5% 4.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##