* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 33 33 30 25 22 26 39 50 61 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 33 33 30 25 22 26 39 50 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 27 23 21 19 20 23 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 27 39 44 36 40 57 88 124 111 119 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 0 -2 2 4 11 -12 -34 -16 -28 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 255 239 234 234 245 249 251 277 293 315 316 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.4 26.1 25.0 24.1 21.5 14.6 14.2 16.3 14.4 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 135 129 116 110 107 93 77 76 79 76 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -51.5 -50.9 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 56 60 63 67 67 63 69 70 69 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -35 -28 -26 -14 10 79 141 64 51 65 24 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 32 21 20 20 62 76 112 83 35 -10 22 -145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 5 8 4 8 5 95 225 235 197 223 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 346 308 324 404 523 640 829 669 794 1125 377 -160 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.7 28.6 31.2 35.1 40.6 46.4 49.2 46.9 45.0 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.2 75.4 75.1 74.4 71.1 65.5 56.0 42.3 25.6 9.5 -3.9 -13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 10 14 24 39 53 59 55 53 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 50 68 42 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 818 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -5. -2. 4. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -9. 4. 15. 26. 37. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.7 74.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.6% 6.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/30/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 33 33 30 25 22 26 39 50 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 33 30 25 22 26 39 50 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 27 22 19 23 36 47 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT