* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 30 27 23 20 17 15 16 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 30 27 23 20 17 15 16 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 1 3 7 9 14 14 24 28 37 42 47 50 56 66 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -5 -4 0 4 3 4 5 3 0 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 302 321 218 163 154 174 211 232 255 257 263 249 253 233 223 210 221 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.0 27.4 28.4 28.6 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 149 150 150 147 145 147 142 136 132 136 146 148 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 46 47 46 42 39 37 37 37 37 37 35 35 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 1 5 0 0 9 13 -3 -19 -30 -45 -53 -40 -11 11 5 200 MB DIV 10 15 20 41 27 -3 -39 -26 -21 -14 2 6 0 -24 -23 -3 -36 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 4 -2 -6 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1674 1634 1585 1530 1460 1330 1216 1112 1019 931 861 757 631 526 453 315 120 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.8 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.1 117.9 117.7 117.4 117.0 116.2 115.5 114.8 114.1 113.7 113.5 113.2 112.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 12 12 12 12 13 28 26 10 3 6 19 25 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. 38. 39. 38. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -0. -5. -10. -16. -22. -25. -28. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -10. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 118.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.54 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 14.5% 13.3% 1.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 11.0% 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 5.5% 4.6% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##