* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 32 27 23 22 32 45 55 72 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 32 27 23 22 32 45 55 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 25 22 20 19 20 24 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 39 43 39 37 40 61 120 123 111 116 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 1 -1 0 3 9 6 -34 -30 -20 -28 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 238 228 230 242 248 251 266 276 297 317 320 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 25.5 24.0 23.5 16.9 14.5 14.7 15.6 9.4 6.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 132 131 112 104 104 80 77 77 78 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -50.9 -51.0 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 59 61 66 63 65 71 66 64 59 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -20 -14 -1 1 61 139 147 77 18 86 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 18 13 24 49 76 96 138 80 44 -14 25 -104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 7 4 5 -5 23 149 348 200 215 270 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 285 263 325 432 600 666 790 417 1152 836 178 -312 -429 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.7 27.4 28.2 29.3 32.0 36.7 43.0 48.8 49.7 47.3 46.4 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.4 76.0 75.9 75.3 74.1 70.0 63.0 51.8 37.2 21.6 6.8 -5.9 -14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 8 12 17 29 46 58 55 50 49 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 50 54 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 895 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -6. -3. 1. 9. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 2. 7. 7. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 3. 10. 13. 17. 20. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -12. -13. -3. 10. 20. 37. 52. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.2 75.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 9.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.4% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/30/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 32 27 23 22 32 45 55 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 27 23 22 32 45 55 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 25 21 20 30 43 53 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT