* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 50 51 51 47 47 49 55 60 64 67 69 70 72 75 78 V (KT) LAND 45 49 50 51 51 47 47 49 55 60 64 67 69 70 72 75 78 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 51 50 47 45 44 46 49 52 55 57 61 67 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 12 13 19 16 11 8 10 8 9 6 14 22 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 4 0 -5 -5 -1 4 5 2 -3 -4 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 94 98 100 99 104 120 148 161 175 151 109 137 177 169 161 168 164 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.1 28.6 27.9 29.3 27.9 27.9 29.0 29.7 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 143 145 148 151 148 143 159 144 145 157 164 162 160 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 75 75 78 81 82 78 79 75 70 63 60 56 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 16 15 11 12 13 15 17 17 16 15 14 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 41 39 42 69 69 54 37 21 21 20 35 42 42 52 57 200 MB DIV 94 109 98 99 84 73 68 65 57 41 6 -21 -42 21 35 13 -7 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 3 8 8 7 5 1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 271 243 219 192 160 110 147 251 385 565 672 819 959 1047 1106 1165 1273 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.6 10.0 9.6 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 90.7 90.1 89.8 89.5 89.3 89.7 91.2 93.6 96.0 98.7 101.7 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 1 5 10 12 13 14 15 15 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 9 12 15 18 13 6 17 8 8 15 16 17 16 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. 38. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. 2. 4. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.5 91.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 21.6% 17.5% 14.5% 9.1% 19.8% 16.2% 9.2% Logistic: 1.7% 11.7% 3.7% 2.3% 0.6% 1.9% 5.4% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 4.6% 12.3% 7.8% 5.8% 3.3% 7.5% 7.3% 5.4% DTOPS: 8.0% 23.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##