* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 30 29 26 24 23 22 24 24 22 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 30 29 26 24 23 22 24 24 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 1 1 12 10 16 21 26 30 35 36 38 43 49 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 5 5 -1 -4 -3 1 4 8 6 6 5 2 -2 6 SHEAR DIR 287 261 236 148 178 162 213 242 260 258 260 253 251 231 220 225 220 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 148 150 149 148 145 144 143 143 141 137 134 134 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 50 48 47 42 40 38 39 38 39 39 37 36 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 0 -6 -4 5 11 14 11 -16 -32 -39 -45 -43 -34 -10 -2 200 MB DIV 19 22 29 33 12 -21 -28 -26 -17 10 -13 -3 6 -4 -38 -27 -5 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 -1 -2 2 1 2 3 6 6 7 6 9 8 5 LAND (KM) 1655 1620 1580 1526 1461 1336 1241 1161 1092 1057 1028 997 984 996 1035 1099 1141 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.0 117.8 117.5 117.2 116.5 115.8 115.2 114.8 114.7 114.9 115.2 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 14 12 9 8 16 35 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 38. 37. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 118.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.64 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 31.9% 32.1% 5.0% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 17.2% 15.5% 1.7% 1.3% 5.3% 4.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##