* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 10/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 38 43 42 38 38 45 69 127 113 101 50 25 14 12 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 3 14 0 -46 -24 -16 1 4 3 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 240 230 229 239 243 249 246 265 284 297 305 299 266 232 201 191 218 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.5 25.9 26.6 24.4 24.6 15.8 14.0 14.5 15.6 6.9 6.3 10.1 9.4 10.4 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 130 115 123 108 111 78 76 77 78 69 68 68 66 64 63 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -53.4 -51.7 -49.7 -48.6 -50.8 -53.8 -56.1 -56.6 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 62 65 65 61 61 71 55 62 72 80 77 81 79 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -14 0 10 22 94 147 162 64 103 174 200 266 251 234 196 89 200 MB DIV 25 27 38 54 60 69 91 152 94 26 45 40 -17 22 26 4 -36 700-850 TADV 4 7 5 1 -1 -34 -12 117 345 171 160 212 57 21 17 18 -6 LAND (KM) 277 308 397 537 672 781 760 516 1510 516 75 -16 -24 304 390 269 370 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.0 27.7 28.6 29.7 32.9 38.3 44.7 49.5 49.6 49.5 53.3 58.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.6 75.7 75.2 74.2 72.6 67.9 59.6 47.0 31.4 16.5 3.0 -6.6 -6.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 10 15 20 34 51 60 53 46 40 30 25 20 15 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 63 45 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 22. 30. 36. 41. 48. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -4. -2. 2. 12. 17. 19. 16. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. 3. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 15. 11. 10. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -14. -15. -2. 10. 20. 37. 48. 55. 55. 66. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.4 75.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 10/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 10/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 10/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 28 28 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT