* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 10/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 23 28 36 47 53 64 80 91 77 67 54 51 51 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 28 36 47 53 64 80 91 55 37 29 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 32 38 45 34 29 30 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 19 20 18 19 16 16 13 11 5 9 19 17 20 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 0 3 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 358 356 2 12 11 4 17 360 347 351 93 53 74 86 123 152 150 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 169 169 169 169 171 172 172 173 173 171 159 157 155 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 75 77 79 80 78 80 82 85 85 83 80 79 75 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 12 13 17 22 28 21 17 13 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -13 -14 -6 0 11 44 74 115 122 118 111 119 149 122 113 95 200 MB DIV 55 44 54 70 85 66 85 60 55 92 117 106 147 168 82 18 6 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 249 226 239 259 271 253 225 292 319 366 442 118 -121 -28 20 22 28 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.2 67.9 68.5 69.0 70.0 70.8 72.1 74.1 76.5 79.1 82.1 85.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 5 5 4 5 8 12 12 14 15 12 7 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 97 94 93 91 87 81 92 129 106 80 53 45 5 42 38 39 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 11. 21. 30. 38. 45. 52. 58. 61. 60. 61. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -14. -14. -17. -18. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 9. 15. 23. 30. 18. 12. 4. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 11. 7. 3. -3. -2. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 16. 27. 33. 44. 60. 71. 57. 47. 34. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.7 66.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.7 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 19.8% 8.6% 2.4% 1.6% 5.3% 10.5% 39.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 4.1% 52.6% Consensus: 1.9% 9.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.6% 2.3% 4.9% 30.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 10/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 10/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 23 28 36 47 53 64 80 91 55 37 29 26 26 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 22 27 35 46 52 63 79 90 54 36 28 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 23 31 42 48 59 75 86 50 32 24 21 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT