* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 30 30 33 32 30 26 22 20 20 20 18 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 30 30 33 32 30 26 22 20 20 20 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 4 10 12 20 23 32 38 40 42 41 47 46 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 4 5 3 -2 -5 0 4 3 4 6 3 5 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 315 100 145 230 169 208 227 251 261 254 261 259 243 222 207 210 210 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 149 150 149 147 143 144 142 139 134 131 128 125 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 49 49 46 42 38 37 35 36 37 36 35 34 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 -10 -9 -4 10 19 10 0 -16 -38 -47 -59 -49 -35 -26 -18 200 MB DIV 18 9 25 2 -1 -42 -38 1 -1 -11 -1 -1 -6 -28 -30 -44 -31 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -2 0 1 1 3 3 7 5 4 4 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 1615 1571 1516 1461 1400 1286 1196 1127 1078 1025 981 939 901 889 890 945 994 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.9 117.8 117.5 117.2 116.8 116.1 115.5 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.4 115.6 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 4 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 8 6 5 2 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 34. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -5. -11. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 117.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 29.6% 29.7% 4.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 16.9% 14.9% 1.5% 0.8% 5.5% 4.8% 1.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##